Mark Hulbert

““the stock market discounts the future, not the past. …that means the market will rise or fall according to changes in anticipated future returns. It does ‘not include history in the calculation,’” Mark Hulbert quoting Lawrence Tint. Marc goes on to point out that the probability for the Dow to rise over the next year is 66% independent of previous performance with the exception of a 20% drop the previous year increases the 66% to 80%. “Regardless, what happens to stocks in [next year] will have nothing to do with how the market has performed this year.”