Asymmetric Bayesian Self-Perception Estimator

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How internal reward gain (α_E) and threat error gain (α_N) warp perceived competence across 40 identical trials (28 Wins, 12 Losses).

True Objective Skill (x) 7.00 70% Win Probability (28W / 12L)

Final Self-Perception (Ŝ₄₀) 3.79 Humble / Under-Confident (< 6.0)

Perception Gap (Ŝ₄₀ − x) −3.21 Gain Ratio α_E / α_N = 0.23×

Ŝ_t+1 = Ŝ_t + α_E·W_t(9−Ŝ_t)/4 − α_N·L_t(Ŝ_t−1)/4

Hover or use Arrow keys on chart to inspect trial prediction error: Trial 40 (Loss −1): ΔŜ = −0.55 | Ŝ = 3.79 (Gap: −3.21)

Cognitive Phenotype Presets

Extraversion — Reward Gain (α_E) Sensitivity to Positive Prediction Error (Wins)

0.15

Neuroticism — Threat/Error Gain (α_N) Sensitivity to Negative Prediction Error (Losses)

0.65